Puckrin & Latreille Real Estate Group Year End Review:  North Durham / Kawartha Lakes

What a Year!

2017 has proved to be one of the most fascinating years to reflect upon; we believe some may want to forget it ever happened but most should feel some comfort that a more stabilized market is forecasted ahead.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, what did happen this year?

2017

January:

Our real estate market came out of December 2016 rolling right along.  With smaller property inventories in all property categories coming through winter coupled with an above average buyer demand, multiple offers continued from Fall 2016 but nothing prepared us for February to May’s real estate price inflation.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $608,417 Active Listings: 351   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   105%  Days on Market:  15  ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

February

February saw the beginning of the rapid rise in demand and low listing inventory and multiple offer frenzies across the Greater Golden Horseshoe from as far away as Lakefield, Campbellford to Niagara Falls and southern Ontario.  From 2 to 16 offers at a time on listings, not since 1988-89 have we experienced the rapid price increase.  Challenging time for buyers to navigate the trepid waters of purchasing a home in this environment.  Sellers see opportunity to sell and realize equity increases in their real estate holdings.

Puckrin & Latreille make conscience decision and advises first time home buyers to be patient and ride this market out, many buyers sit on the side and bide their time.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $665,005 Active Listings: 398   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   110%  Days on Market:  10  ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

March

The continued buying frenzy continues and price growth skyrockets, even with listings nearly doubling in count; multiple offers are still raging

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $697,896 Active Listings: 679   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   115%  Days on Market:  7  ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

April

Prices still rise slightly but listing inventory doubles again and we start to see some cracks as property inventory climbs to catch up to demand.  Still multiple offers but buyers fatigue and some sit out negotiations.  Rapid price increases over the past 4 months in the GTA prompt Ontario Government to introduce their 16-point Fair Housing Plan in April which included a 15% tax on foreign buyers.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $702,768 Active Listings: 1182   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   113%  Days on Market:  7   ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

May

As a result of government intervention into the marketplace with the Fair Housing Plan, market activity and price appreciation slows significantly and the market shifts towards a more balanced market as more buyers take a wait and see approach to assess the long-term impact of the government’s changes.  Average sale price loses $50,000 another 900 listings is added to inventory.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $652,963 Active Listings: 1941   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   106%  Days on Market:  10  ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

June

Market activity and sales slow significantly, average sale price in Durham loses another $35,000.  Listing inventory continues to rise, days on market lengthen and market panic commences as properties that need to sell to complete other transactions linger on the market and do not sell; some buyers are walking away from transactions leaving law suits across the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $615,064 Active Listings: 2216   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   101%  Days on Market:  14    ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

July

As summer begins, further market hemorrhaging is experienced as Durham’s average sales price loses another $45,000, but hope is in site as listing inventory stabilizes and days on market remains at a healthy 20 days, but unfortunately buyers are still walking away from transactions and refusing to close on some resulting in financial loses and logistical moving issues across the Greater Golden Horseshoe.  Ontario Government quietly announces updates to the Places to Grow Act, Greenbelt 2005, and Oak Ridge Moraine Plan.  Bank of Canada raises interest rates 0.25%, first increase in months

Puckrin & Latreille re-introduce first time buyers back to marketplace, many find better bargains and value pricing on property purchases.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $569,748 Active Listings: 2172   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   99%  Days on Market:  20

August

As indicated in July, average sale price stabilizes in Durham and rises $18,000, listing inventory drops due to the school year readying to commence, offer negotiations are more balanced between Buyer and Sellers; days on market holds tight at 23.  Balanced markets are returning but Seller’s remorse in not acting sooner, gone are the days of a seller’s market.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $587,172 Active Listings: 1869   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   98%  Days on Market:  23    ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

September

Balanced market it is with market stabilization with 2 months of relatively similar market statistics; price erosion stops and healthy demand remains; sellers climatizes to new pricing levels throughout Greater Golden Horseshoe.  Bank of Canada raises interest rates again by 0.25% to 1% signalling a good overall Canadian economy.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $578,666 Active Listings: 2,025   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   98%  Days on Market:  23   ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

October

Balanced market continues; “the Greater Golden Horseshoe housing market has been impacted by a number of policy changes at the provincial and federal levels.  Similar to the track followed in the Greater Vancouver Area, it appears that the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $575,602 Active Listings: 1,912   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   98%  Days on Market:  22

November

General housing market starts to see segmenting; lower prices ranges under $550,000 and townhomes and condominium units sees sellers’ markets with some multiple offers; depending on neighbourhoods we see a return of an increase in demand but most detached and semi-detached homes remain a balanced market; rural and semi-rural real estate remains a good investment with limited supply and good demand.  Federal government announces interest rate stress test on all mortgages commencing January 1, 2018.

Durham Region Average Sale Price: $574,901 Active Listings: 1,780   Avg. Sale Price to List Price:   98%  Days on Market:  23    ( TREB, Market Watch)  [ Toronto Real Estate Board ] 

As for our Recreational Property Report – year in review – check out the hot link below to the 2017 REMAX Recreational Property Report that includes the City of Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough County:

https://blog.remax.ca/recreationalpropertyreport/

Forecast:  December into 2018

What does 2018 bring? What is in store for the year to come?  What will the interest rate stress test result in our marketplace?

Our forecast is a relatively small increase in price of a modest 2.5 to 3% across Durham Region and southern Kawartha Lakes for 2018 but no reason to drag our chins! We have estimated that final numbers to come in for December 2017 should result in year over year average price increase from 2016 of approximately 16% or presented more visually:

2016 Average sale price in Durham:  $533,000 2017 Average sale price in Durham: $635,000 (est)

Change + 16%   

For 2018, Durham / Kawartha Lakes / County of Peterborough will see a more balanced market moving forward, and ongoing infrastructure projects in Durham such as Highway 407 extension completion to Highway 418 in Courtice and Highway 35/115 in Kawartha East/County of Peterborough, and the GO train extension to Bowmanville will continue to contribute to real estate market growth in in the coming years.

More locally, the growth of the City of Oshawa at UOIT and Windfield Farms, in particular 1.5 million square feet of commercial space at Winchester and Simcoe may influence commercial market investment in areas to the north as this development commences; one certainly to watch.

The Town of Lindsay has seen market growth over the past few years with more and more young first time buyers and new retirees choosing this community to live in due to its proximity to major highways, recreation, schools, hospital and amenities.  Its relative real estate values in comparison with southern GTA communities makes this area very attractive.

How did we do?

2017 proved to be a trying year for every party in the real estate transaction and as realtors we were not left out.  2017 saw us utilize our experience more than ever in navigating our clients’ through one of the most tumultuous years we have seen.  Coupled with new policies, small interest rate hikes and unprecedented supply and demand, made buying and selling real estate sometimes a real adventure.  We are proud to say that we did our best in protecting our clients’ interests, successfully negotiated transactions to everyone’s benefit using respect, good judgement, and market knowledge; and we knew when to have someone walk away.

We can say that we truly had a successful year (certainly not without our challenges), measured not only on number of units sold but more importantly on how many happy, satisfied clients who we helped meet their goals.

Our print and digital marketing campaigns were successful with more and more emphasis on the digital world, our social media campaigns generated over 1 million page views/hits/interactions/ impressions – directing all the online traffic to our website. Now that’s statistics!   We will continue with the same momentum in 2018 to reach out to our community using Facebook, Instagram and Twitter so please tune into the platform that you wish to use and stay informed, enlightened and educated about our communities that we call home.

More importantly, after nearly a year’s worth of research, work and old fashion trial and error, we were pleased to refresh our brand and soft-launch our new website:   www.liveplayinvest.com .  Here you will find a new and refreshed way of searching for properties, community pages, real estate information, videos, our blog, get to know us, and of course links to our social media platforms.  What ever way you wish to communicate with us and at whatever your interest level in our area is, we have it covered.  Watch in the New Year for our official launch!

Around the Family!

Its always an exciting time around our office of Puckrin & Latreille, attached to RE/MAX All-Stars Realty Inc. Brokerage in Port Perry above Pantry Shelf Café across from Palmer Park and Lake Scugog in beautiful Port Perry.  We share space with our sister company, Antec Appraisal Group (East) where together we share ideas, stay informed, research and share passion for the industry.  We have 3 generations under one roof which helps us stay in touch with all types of families, young and the experienced!  This wide age spread leads to some fun and laughter and we are always having a good time meeting our clients’ needs.  

We are excited this 2018 year because two of our young associates, Cayleigh Hoag, Sales Representative, and Jenika McLean, Appraiser are both tying the knot with their young men, Evan and Steve respectively.  We are really excited to have some of the chatter and bantering back and forth in the planning of their weddings.  It brings back warm and exciting memories of starting new relationships!  It’s shaping up to be an exciting, joyous 2018!

We can not forget to also celebrate some milestones in the industry! Keith Puckrin and Guy Latreille (who we affectionately call “The Dads”) are celebrating 44 years and 42 years in real estate respectively! We draw upon their experiences in good times and bad to help navigate the ebb and flow of our industry – it has proved itself to be an integral part of our business.

As for Tanya and I, we celebrate 12 years of marriage this year, 26 and 17 years, respectively in real estate sales, our daughters, Avery will be 10 and Mya 8 in the early months of 2018.  Wow, where has the time gone!  We are pumped for 2018 as we ready ourselves to make it the best year ever for everyone!

Tracy Milburn, our executive assistant, and Lise Deschenes, our Digital Marketing Strategist are integral to our business operations and satisfying our clients’ needs.  They continue to educate themselves and source out new and proven ideas to position our firm to break new grounds.  We are excited for their enthusiasm for 2018 and thank them for their awesome efforts in 2017.

As I finish writing this, its December 30th and we are closing out 2017; I reflect on the year we have had with all the ups and downs.  Where we have come from, where we are now and where we are going; I feel proud and happy, but not quite content as usual – as I always say, there is room for improvement because that is what keeps us alive and excited everyday.  We are ready for 2018; we will bring our A game to the table and help everyone the best we know how!  

Happy New Year!

Brett Puckrin, AACI, P.App, PLE

Sales Representative

Puckrin and Latreille Real Estate Group

Re/Max All-Stars Realty Inc. Brokerage

Direct: 905.985.7300   

144 Queen Street. Port Perry

www.LivePlayInvest.com

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